| Well, Joe Lieberman could hardly be any clearer that he means to single-handedly (in the Dem caucus) scotch the public option -- even that he'd scuttle the whole damn ball of wax just to prevent it. And yet, the reaction from Harry Reid, the President, Chris Dodd, and all has been rather sanguine ... or at least they don't feel they need to burn bridges -- such as they exist -- yet. So what's going on? Well, still lurking behind all the negotiating, skullduggery, and open threats is the prospect of reconciliation -- 51 votes in the Senate can pass legislation that deals with the deficit in some substantial way -- no filibuster. The public option, particularly the strong, Medicare-linked variety, is a money-saver. Big time. Even the House's health care bill with the limited PO improves the deficit. So presumably, the public option fits very neatly into the reconciliation-eligible category. However, much of the rest of health care, particularly the new regulations on the insurance industry, the personal mandate, and a whole raft of accompanying legislation, might not be eligible. So why not pass the big health care bill minus the PO, with 60 votes -- presumably including Snowe and Lieberman? And then pass the PO as separate legislation, via reconciliation? It's kind of the obvious strategy, no? This would explain a couple of things. Reid knows this, the White House knows this, and Lieberman knows all this. I don't believe Lieberman really wants to scotch health care ... not per se. He does want to make himself a maximum pain to the Dems -- out of pure spite, surely not out of political calculation -- and is willing to kill it if the entire political establishment doesn't sufficiently kiss his butt ... which it is now doing. So the price he extracts is that all those progressives who insisted on the public option will have to vote for a health care bill without one. And the President has to bow to His Joeness in settling for a bill without one, even though he's (ostensibly) in favor of the PO. Stuff will hit the fan -- Daily Kos will go absolutely nuclear, and -- short term -- whatever base-rousing benefit may have come from the bill, evaporates. But only temporarily. Will the progressive base actually stay mad at progressives for accepting an original bill without a public option, but then getting one, say, a month later? I just can't imagine. We would be stupid to be so, especially since a 51-vote PO is likely to be stronger and better than a 60-vote PO. So ... I don't know ... maybe Joe Lieberman really is the least of Harry Reid's worries. |
