1) The election will be about the incumbent
In spite of Corzine's best efforts to make the election a referendum on Christie, it still ended up being about him. All that Baker has to do is be vague on the specifics and simply say look at the record-I could do better. If Deval goes negative early he risks decreasing his popularity further and also risks looking like an old politician as opposed to an Axelrod hopemongering one, which will also drive down the support among his base.
Swing voters, as they did in NJ, will gravitate to the only viable alternative.
2) Cahill won't be a factor
Just like Chris Dagget looked like he was going to re-elect Corzine we saw that on election day his support overwhelmingly went to the established alternative in Christie. Voters disliked Corzine so much they refused to throw their vote away on Dagget. Dagget is smarter, more charismatic, and was more well known then Tim Cahill. He also had more grassroots support and better fundraising.
In my opinion Tim made a big mistake not going after Deval in the primary (where he had a decent shot IMO) and has made himself politically irrelevant. These early polls don't matter-on election day the undecides and all but his most committed supporters will swing to Baker.
3) Corruption scandals will be linked to the Governor
Corzine was irreparably damaged by a series of massive corruption scandals involving state legislators and mayors, all with Ds next to their name. Despite his attempts to paint himself as a technocrat above the fray of Jersey politics, Corzine still suffered guilt by association. Similarly Deval will be saddled with more corruption scandals on Beacon Hill. The timing of the eventual indictment and imprisonment of Sal DiMasi, the evidence DiMasi gives to the FBI and what implications that might have, the Wilkerson and Turner trials, all of these events will point back to Deval fairly or unfairly as a man who is either ineffective or indifferent to corruption. As NJ shows the voters will blame the man on top even if he is really out of the loop and alienated from his own party's establishment.
4)Star power useless
NJ voters overwhelmingly approve of President Obama yet overwhelmingly refused to listen to him this election day and voted out Corzine. Similarly, no matter how many star Democrats come to stump in this state, Deval's fate may already be sealed.
That said, the Christie model falls apart in one regard-Baker is actually better suited for MA than Christie was for NJ:
Christie was far too the right of the avg NJ voter on abortion, gay rights, stem cells and taxes. In MA Baker is only to the right on taxes, a position that is also popular with most MA voters (most overrides fail to pass, prop-2, plus all the Republican governors that were elected on no-tax pledges). He is pro-gay marriage, pro-choice, pro-stem cells. Basically a social liberal and fiscal moderate like most of our independent voters and even some Democrats. Once more people know who Baker is, and he will be helped by a competitive primary, the more people will gravitate to him as the likely Deval alternative.
Now whether this is good news or bad news for MA is another thing, I suspect Baker will be just as ineffective as Patrick, if not more so due to his own naivete and a more hostile legislature. But in any case he is our next Governor. |
