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Boston Votes: 2009 Municipal Election

by: Matt in Boston

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 22:05:43 PM EST


(Bumped. More wonkery! [David] - promoted by Bob)

As is quickly becoming tradition, below, please find my analysis and overview of yesterday's mayoral election. I was heartened by the number of people I saw at the polls yesterday who told me how much they enjoy my channeling my number-crunching inner-geek.

Overview
In a climate where incumbents were losing or facing much closer-than expected results, four-term incumbent Mayor Thomas M. Menino again proved that he is the exception to the rule. While Councilor-at-large Michael Flaherty put up a valiant fight, Menino romped.

Winning 57% to Flaherty's 42%, Menino won a broad victory across the city. Communities of color in particular, provided Menino with a firewall of support that made his defeat impossible.

Matt in Boston :: Boston Votes: 2009 Municipal Election
Floon Effect?
Flaherty and his troops should be commended for waging a serious campaign, and their inclusion of vanquished preliminary opponent Sam Yoon as a "running mate" was an inspired move. Indeed, Team Floon helped narrow the gap in many progressive wards where Flaherty barely registered in September. Some of this made up lost ground can be explained by the increase in voter turnout (which hit over 31% by day's end), but certainly the unorthodox pairing of these two colleagues gave Flaherty some extra-oomph leading into yesterday's vote.

It worked in some progressive wards (Flaherty narrowly won affluent Ward 5, after coming in 3rd in the prelim), but seemed to have a negligible effect in communities of color. In predominantly African-American wards 8, 9, and 14, Menino's numbers were solid -- and Flaherty didn't stand a chance.

Highlights (or lowlights, depending on your candidate preference)
After winning just 3 wards in the preliminary election (South Boston and Charlestown), Flaherty won 5 yesterday (Charlestown, Back Bay/Beacon Hill, his native South Boston, and part of Dorchester). Menino carried the remaining 17 wards. This is impressive for Flaherty, as Menino won all 22 wards in his 2001 and 2005 reelection fights.

More interestingly, Flaherty claimed a total of 72 precinct wins scattered across the city. He won 7 precincts in Ward 2 (Charlestown), 2 in Ward 3 (Downtown), 2 in Ward 4 (the Fenway), 9 in Ward 5 (Back Bay/Beacon Hill), sixteen in Wards 6 & 7 (South Boston), 2 in Ward 10 (Mission Hill), twelve in Wards 11 & 19 (Jamaica Plain), 7 in Wards 13 & 16 (parts of Dorchester), and fifteen in Wards 21 & 22 (Allston/Brighton).

Menino won 179 precincts across the city. He could claim shut-outs (winning every precinct) in Wards 1 (East Boston), 8 (Roxbury/South Bay), 9 (Roxbury/South End), 12 (Roxbury), 14, 15, 17 (various parts of Dorchester), 18 (Mattapan/Hyde Park), and 20 (Roslindale/West Roxbury). The only Ward where Menino lost every precinct was Ward 6 (South Boston).

Best and Worst (Redux)
Excluding the unnecessary polling location Ward 1, Precinct 15 (Harbor Islands), where one person cast one ballot for Menino (and thus gave him 100% of the vote), the Mayor's best showing percentage-wise was Ward 14, Precinct 9 (Dorchester), where he defeated Flaherty by a margin of 82.35% - 17.65% (196 - 42 votes). Flaherty's best showing percentage-wise was Ward 6, Precinct 8 (South Boston), where he defeated Menino by a margin of 75.78% - 23.76% (488 - 153 votes).

In terms of raw numbers, Menino earned the most votes in Ward 18, Precinct 20 (Readville), where he received a whopping 714 votes to Flaherty's 233. Flaherty captured the most raw votes in Ward 7, Precinct 3 (South Boston), where he out-polled the Mayor 597-273.
[The worst raw vote totals for both candidates (excluding the Harbor Islands) comes from Ward 21, Precinct 2 (BU) where Flaherty defeated Menino with a vote of 17 - 9.]
Boston Battlegrounds
Menino and Flaherty tied in three precincts in the city. In Ward 1, Precinct 7 (East Boston), both men received 129 votes; in Ward 16, Precinct 2 (Dorchester), they both received 141 votes; and in Ward 22, Precinct 1 (Brighton), they both received 222 votes.

There were three wards that were separated by less than 100 votes. The closest, Ward 16(Dorchester) saw Flaherty defeat Menino by 45 votes (3157-3112). Menino took Ward 22 (Brighton) by 58 votes (2306-2248). Flaherty won Ward 5 (Back Bay/Beacon Hill) by 72 votes.

Ward-by-ward breakdown (with preliminary results from 9/23/09) can be found here.

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nice job, I missed Ward 16 ... (0.00 / 0)
returns to the traditional conservative base, by a small margin ...




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