| The big news in the just-announced Globe poll is that there's no news. The numbers are startlingly similar to where they've been all along. There are 537 likely Democratic primary voter respondents, interviewed Nov. 13-18, giving us a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. So these numbers should take into account pretty much the whole health care brouhaha.
Candidate: Current (last week) {3 weeks ago}
Coakley: 43 (44) {42}
Capuano: 22 (16) {16}
Pagliuca: 15 (17) {15}
Khazei: 6 (3) {5}
Also very impressive -- and very bad news for the three guys -- are Coakley's favorable/unfavorable ratings.
Candidate: Fav/Unfav -- net
Coakley: 71/13 -- +58
Capuano: 56/14 -- +42
Pagliuca: 40/22 -- +18
Khazei: 28/12 -- +16
The poll asked about the health care bill: 32% of respondents would reject the bill if it contains the Stupitts amendment, while 43% think it should pass in any case.
However, the race does retain a measure of fluidity. Although Coakley's numbers are commanding, only 26% respondents said that their choice is definite, and another 24% are leaning. Half the electorate remains undecided.
Still, it's looking like Coakley would have to really screw something up to blow this lead. It will be most interesting to see whether the other candidates decide to attack in the upcoming debates. |
