| Well, the polling is just all over the freakin' place in this race. Suffolk's new poll, taken Monday through Wednesday and released tonight, has Brown at 50%, Coakley at 46%, Kennedy at 3%, and 1% undecided. Suffolk shows Brown with 65% of unenrolled voters, which mostly accounts for the difference between this poll and our poll. Suffolk polled 500 "very" or "somewhat" likely voters, so their margin of error is +/- 4%.
I'm too tired to pore over the details. The questions and answers are available here. The crosstabs are supposed to be linked from this page, but at the moment they seem to have the wrong file uploaded. Perhaps they will fix that soon.
One really interesting thing about all the recent polling is that Coakley's numbers have pretty consistently been high 40's to low 50's (though Suffolk's 46 is definitely the bottom end). But Brown's numbers fluctuate dramatically from poll to poll. My own theory, based on nothing more than a gut feeling, is that that's because it's really, really hard to figure out how many teabaggers are going to show up next Tuesday. They are the element that has caught everyone by surprise in this race, and no one is quite sure what to make of them, or maybe even who they are. So the different pollsters have different ways of determining who is likely to show up, and as a result, they sample rather different populations.
I dunno. I guess we'll find out on Tuesday. |