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www.BlueMassGroup.com

Reilly creates a fundraising problem for himself.

by: FrankSkeffington

Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 00:14:49 AM EST


(Good point, and one that the press doesn't appear to have caught onto yet. - promoted by David)

By anointing a candidate with only $18,000 in her campaign account, is the Reilly camp aware of the problem they have made for themselves?  This year it is apparent that Goldberg, Murray and Silbert will have well funded campaigns, with Silbert and Murray probably spending in the $1 to 1.5 million range (and maybe more) and Goldberg potentially spending in the gazillion range.
FrankSkeffington :: Reilly creates a fundraising problem for himself.
Now, it is true that Reilly can spend money to co-promote St. Fleur’s LG race.  But the campaign finance laws are tricky and the Reilly and St. Fleur campaigns must share the costs of such co-promotion.  So, if Reilly and St. Fleur run a $2 million dollar ad blitz in September, featuring both of them, the regulations state that each campaign committee will have to share the cost for the ad blitz.  (Or if St. Fleur was in 10 seconds of the ad, her campaign would have to pay half of the cost of the 10 second part of the ad.)  If the St. Fleur campaign does not pay their share of the campaign costs (in the Primary), then it constitutes an illegal donation on the part of the Reilly campaign.

So instead of continuing their fundraising efforts to prepare for the General Election, Reilly’s money people are going to have to divert time and energy towards raising a separate million dollars (at least) for St. Fleur’s primary race.  A million dollars that Reilly won’t be able use against Healy in the general.  (Although, the more I see Reilly's skills, the less I see him in the General Election.)

And this is a smart move because why again?  And how well thought out is their plan?  Time will tell.

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$ Could be an interesting/determining factor (0.00 / 0)
I think if she can compete w/, or come close to, Silbert's $$, and possibly Murray's if he can build on his Dec. 05 numbers (which, based on his early Jan. #'s may not happen), then she's probably going to be OK riding Reilly's coattails.  But she has a long way to go, starting with only ~19K in the bank.

But if she can't mount a significant ad buy, or afford to pay for her percentage of being in a Reilly ad, then she's in trouble.  Her entering the race also probably doesn't hurt the others' fundraising, because they're each pulling from such different pools.  Murray's pulling from CMass, Goldberg has the Newton/Brookline/jewish $$, and Silbert, has her Kerry -finance-committee-based (for whom she raised a lot of dough in 04) connections to use.  (Yes, I know Kelley has Kerry connections too  but they have not been particularly effective thus far.

Bottom line: Silbert and Murray - and Goldberg if she either raises some $ or puts some of her own in - are not only still in this thing but are still the favorites to get the nod from the voters.  The democratic primary electorate is wise to the "ticket" scheme now, and may not buy into it. 


Ah. (0.00 / 0)
So can we now stop talking about Deval's "viability" and start talking about the issues?

The people I know who support Reilly only do so because they think that a cash-strapped black liberal won't be able to take statewide office. Reilly himself seems to believe that a cash strapped black liberal who got into the race very late can at least take the Lt. Governor's seat. So let's move the discussion past "Reilly can win vs. Deval captures our ideals," and start talking substance.


people who support Reilly (0.00 / 0)
I support Deval Patrick, and so do a solid majority of the people I know in progressive circles, but there are some who support Reilly in those circles, and mostly it's not for those reasons.  Some people just like Reilly because he's honest and hardworking (which I believe he is), others look at his history of having done things for & in Massachusetts.  Deval Patrick has been promoting a message of "vision", and perhaps as a result of that, the campaign hasn't put much into telling people what he has actually accomplished so far, and what his Massachusetts connections are other than biography/background stuff.  I think he has some good things to say about that, but he hasn't been reaching the people who are looking for it.  I'm not sure that's a flaw - the "vision" message may be worth a lot more votes.

[ Parent ]
afertig ... (3.00 / 1)
as a Reilly supporter, I take issue with the entire support, then again, I don't know you, so I guess I don't fall into the group you have described, but let me take this opportunity to point out a few things.

(1) If Tom Reilly was black and Deval Patrick was white my support would not change either way.  I'd still be supporting Tom Reilly.  Race does matter in politics (as it does through out our society), but it should not and must not be allowed to be determinant of who we choose to support.

(2) The reasons for supporting the AG aren't just perceived negatives of Deval Patrick (I say perceived because, quite frankly, I believe what you have listed are only perceptions).  I support the AG because he has dedicated his life to public service in Massachusetts.  I support him because we share similair backgrounds.  I support him for his ability to stand up to the vested, special interests (the Church, the auto industry, and environmental abusers, etc.).  And yes, I support him because I believe he can win.  But, I would hope all activists believe their candidate could win, otherwise, the process becomes either an ego trip or a joke.

So let's refrain from stereotypes and hyperbole. 


[ Parent ]
Except... (0.00 / 0)
Reilly has a great shot at losing in EXACTLY the same way all the other Dems have in the general gubernatorial race!

Dems have to wake up and realize they need to reach out to build the party infrastructure neccessary to win a governor's race.

Deval's got a damn sight better head start on that than Reilly could pull off in ten years (the way he's running his campaign).

I'm sure Reilly's a great guy. I don't know why he doesn't stay AG! He's good at that. There, the political waffling, old-school politics, and lack of exciting speeches don't matter so much.

Left in Lowell: cuz why read the Lowell Sun if you don't have to? ;)


[ Parent ]
question ... (0.00 / 0)
first, I'm not sure what "damn sight head start" means.  I assume you just meant that the Patrick campaign is reaching out more than the Reilly campaign.

second, I'd ask, reaching out to who?  Not to say Patrick doesn't have support, I know he does, but I have yet to see the support be anything other than those who supported Reich.

I'm still not sure what old school politics means at all.  It seems like Reilly is in the category of damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.  The good thing, as I see it, is that he doesn't care.  He just wants to do whats right and whats best for the commonwealth.

and to the vision thing, I think Patrick's speeches are great.  I like the vision-talk, but my problem is theres no "how we'll get from here to there" ... its great to have a dream, its better to have shown that you can get things done.


[ Parent ]
Reilly lost at sea.... (0.00 / 0)
... And to date Reilly's provide neither "vision" nor "how we'll get from here to there."

There's no way I'm going to support a candidate who has no public stance other than he's not Kerry Healey.


[ Parent ]
Debate on the Issues (0.00 / 0)
I don't disagree that there are people who genuinely like Tom Reilly. The people I have encountered say that they love Deval Patrick, but they worry about his money, his race, in short his viability, and thus they support Reilly.

At the last state convention, the Reilly camp also passed out flyers in which polls were shown that he was the front runner. That seemed to be the predominant reason to vote for Reilly.

Ruth Balser, my State Representative sent an e-mail around in which she extolled Reilly's ability to win elections and emphasized how important it is to have a Democrat in the corner office.

I do believe that Reilly and and Patrick can win. And if you noticed in my comment I did imply that this was the *perception* not the reality. My point was that we need to get past perceptions of viability and towards a debate on the issues.


[ Parent ]



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