MA-05: a Donoghue surge?

Second place (0.00 / 0)

Hmm. Note sure how much value this trophy has in an election.

BMG: Reality-based commentary.

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by: Bob Neer @ Thu Aug 30, 2007 at 22:55:33 PM CDT

second place (0.00 / 0)

no one is playing for second place. No one.  And I'm personally impressed by the experience of the field, but this campaign has been called over from the start, as advertised by some, not necessarily on this site.  But now it might not be, and people might be focusing on this campaign, and if we read apple to apple polling numbers, the bz polls, we think they echo what we are hearing on the campaign. 
But this close to election day, we're willing to forget the horserace polls and concentrate on GOTV.  Looking forward to Tuesday.

Scott Ferson
Donoghue campaign

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by: scott in belmont @ Thu Aug 30, 2007 at 23:07:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Electorate (6.00 / 2)

Very interesting! Nevertheless, as much as I like polling and believe it's usually quite accurate, any polling of a special election (especially one that follows the Labor Day break) has got to be a pollster's nightmare.

While "likely voter" screens are generally pretty solid when we're talking about Presidential/off-year elections, it seems impossible to really get at what a "likely voter" will be in this race.

For example, a full ~47% of the 1,297 registered voters were identified as "likely to vote" in either the Democratic or Republican primary. I'd be surprised if it gets much past half of that number -- so a lot (even most?) of those so-called "likely voters" won't even show up.

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by: Hoyapaul @ Thu Aug 30, 2007 at 22:56:32 PM CDT

Does this make Donoghue the only alternative to Niki? (5.00 / 2)

That is my question given the polling results. This race is all about GOTV and field operations. The unknown for me is if there is an anti-Niki vote that will now view voting for Donoghue as the only way to stop a Tsongas win. Will that vote come out? Will supporters of candidates lagging behind switch votes? The poll makes Tuesday a bit more interesting.

Can't wait to read the next panic email from Emily's List.

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by: Striker57 @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 06:07:25 AM CDT

Donoghue is to the right of Tsongas (0.00 / 0)

I am advised that Eileen Donoghue gave money to the Republican challenger Mitt Romney ran against Susan Fargo in 2004. The reason was her opposition at the time to marriage equality for gays and lesbians. What is the response of the Donoghue campaign to this information I wonder?

It seems to me that lefties who are scattering among the also-rans are helping out the more conservative alternative to the frontrunner.

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by: tudor586 @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 07:56:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

why don't you read the editorial in bay windows dated august 30 (6.00 / 2)

tudor586:

your characterization of Donoghue as anti marriage equality is totally false.

Please read the august 30th edition of Bay Windows and see which candidate(s) they are endorsing; Eldridge and Donoghue

http://www.baywindow...

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by: Mimi P @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 08:07:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've read the editorial (0.00 / 0)

I don't believe they were aware of the campaign contribution to one of Slick Dancing Mitt's clones in the 2004 legislative elections. I realize that Donoghue has jumped on board our bandwagon, but I don't believe a johnny-come-lately has the same claim on GLBT support as someone who has been with us since the 1970's. Bay Windows is not a canonical voice and does not speak ex cathedra.

I'd like to hear what Donoghue campaign has to say on this subject. Did she give money to one of Mitt's culture warriors?

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by: tudor586 @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 08:16:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

who was with you since the 1970's? (0.00 / 0)

That one time donation to a family friend in neighboring Chelmsford has been discussed at least twice on this blog; I am not going to do it a third time.

I will just reiterate that it is unfair of you to accuse Eileen of being anti-equal rights; it is just not true.

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by: Mimi P @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 10:00:11 AM CDT

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Niki and Paul were with us in the 70's (0.00 / 0)

Niki was a progressive activist in the 1970's. In Paul's 1978 campaign for the Senate he was unabashed in his support for gay rights. Niki was right there with her husband on our issues. I would be less upset about Donoghue's donation to a "family friend" if John Thibault hadn't been one of Slick Dancing Mitt's culture warriors in the push to end marriage equality in 2004.

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by: tudor586 @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 10:22:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Eldridge has endorsement of Stonewall and Bay Windows (6.00 / 2)

I urge all of you to consider Jamie Eldridge.  He has been a leader on this issue since he was first elected.  He has successfully worked to bring other legislators on board. 

Stonewall Democrats endorsed both candidates; Stonewall volunteers sponsored a canvass a few weeks ago.  So look for the intersection of the two dual endorsements, and the message is clear: Jamie for Congress.

Kate Donaghue, volunteer, Vice Chair Eldridge Campaign

Kate Donaghue, volunteer.

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by: Kate @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 09:53:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's true... (0.00 / 0)

Ms. Donoghue switched parties and gave money to a Mitt Romney-supported clone who was seeking to oust a liberal Democratic State Senator.

Mimi P can say what she wants, but the facts speak for themselves.  Her supporters say that Ms. Donoghue was a friend of this conservative Republican, and that their friendship trumped good government, but that's a little unsettling for me.

I would hate to see this congressional seat be filled by a person who would support a Republican -- a conservative one at that -- because of friendship.

As far as I'm concerned, Donoghue should be running as an independent or as a Republican...she does not deserve the endorsement of the Democratic party, and I hope she doesn't get it.

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by: bluetoo @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 16:48:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not Surprising (0.00 / 0)

Amateur pundits would know that Donoghue moved up because she started on TV...Tsongas is back up on TV and still has an 11 point lead in the polls. Taking into account the difficulties of polling for this race, this poll doesn't show anything really surprising. Going into this weekend Tsongas still has a big lead but it is all going to come down to GOTV.

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by: blankman @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 09:04:03 AM CDT

Is It Wednesday Yet? (0.00 / 0)

I cannot wait for Wednesday morning - or actually, for 8:01pm on Tuesday - when hopefully all of this riduculous back and forth about the 5th will stop and everyone will rally behind the nominee. I am all for the very valid discussions of differences on issues that have happened on this site and on others, but I have to say that because of the all-too-frequent, petty back-and-forth about who is a true progressive, who lives where, who self-finances, who has what experience, etc., I have largely stopped reading BMG's coverage of this race.

Why is it that it doesn't seem to be possible for us Dems to talk issues, plain and simple, and steer clear of tearing our candidates apart on the window dressing stuff? It just makes the Republican nominee's job easier. Now, I know that the the Democratic winner is basically set to win the seat in the General, but I've never been one to take these things for granted. Why hand over potential ammunition to the Republicans?

I hope that all of the readers and commenters here at BMG will support whichever candidate wins on Tuesday with the same vim and vigor that you have both supported and slammed the various Primary candidates.

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by: politicaljunkie @ Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 14:11:58 PM CDT

Dont dismiss Ogo (0.00 / 0)

At a backyard BBQ today with my extended family which is a typical blue collar Democratic family, with some members living in the 5th might vote for Jim on the basis of his patriotism, 9/11, and the fact that he is a veteran. That means a lot to these people, and on the issues he is essentially a Democrat who wants to cut taxes as well, which again resonates with these kinds of voters. Most average folks not on BMG do not know who the people running are, they are not paying attention, but they know who Jim is because of 9/11 and the fact that he is already running ads here, so it could still be competitive if someone without the Tsongas name wins, or if someone is running to the far left on social issues.Another issue that could be a big deal is immigration, the district, especially around Lowell and Lawrence is getting increasingly Hispanic which means several things. The first is that the Dem who targets Hispanic voters most effectively in the primary, and seeing how she has good rapports with the Hispanic community that could be Donahuge, could win the primary. Conversely a lot of the blue collar Dems oppose illegal immigration and the more conservative stances that Jim has taken could both help him win with those voters and rally Hispanics around the Democratic nominee. Its an issue that is a lot bigger around this district than a lot of people have talked about, it really hasnt come up in the debates, but it could be a make or break issue for both nominees.

 

That said even with immigration and 9/11 behind him, and better name recognition than a non-Tsongas nominee, its still a blue district, and at the end of the day any one of these other candidates will get name recognition boosts from winning the primary. If they can put out positive ads that negate a lot of Jims positives, or argue that they will be better for working people and associate Jim with the anti-working class elements of the GOP, then they might be able to win decisively. But expect it to be much closer than the polls are showing. 

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by: jconway @ Mon Sep 03, 2007 at 01:17:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]